North Korea is estimated to have anywhere between 15–60 nuclear devices. As you point out, their testing site is worthless and has been for most of a year but they still have already produced weapons that can be deployed. They also still have further testing they can do on miniaturization as well as deployment and launch systems among others. Plus a massive standing army and a metric crap-ton of conventional arms. I don’t see a downside in engaging them and attempting to bring the last war of the 20th century to an end. The South Koreans sure seem interested in it.
Kim Jong-un has been liberalizing the markets in his country and there are many other indications that this 30+ year old, raised in the west, is willing to begin bringing his country into the international community. China is interested in this, so is Russia (they in fact have been greater partners to the North recently than the Chinese), and most definitely South Korea is.
I hold no illusions about Kim giving up his nukes. And yes, in many ways this is convenient timing for Kim and he’s feeding us plenty of BS. What Trump has done, deliberately or not (I don’t know how much is strategy and how much is just his…chaotic personality), is not only to recognize Kim as the sovereign and legitimate leader of his nation but also to call him out on some of his BS. Most recently by dramatically and suddenly withdrawing from the summit, following some more incendiary language from DPRK, who has just today announced they’d be willing to meet with the US ‘at any time.’ But even more importantly not calling him out on the other BS, like them ‘giving up’ testing which is demonstrably a sham, as you say.
Like I said, I don’t know how much is strategy. I don’t harbor any sugar-coated hopes that peace will come quickly — or even at all. But by every metric, this is the closest we’ve come to a potential peace, and honestly Trump isn’t doing the worst job at bringing it about. Nobody is more shocked than me. I begged people not to vote for him. I pleaded for people to think about his craziness when dealing with foreign nations. But…it’s not going too badly in North Korea. This doesn’t excuse his boorishness with our allies, his nutty tweets to China, RUSSIA, but in this instance, based on my many years of watching North Korea I have actual hope.
