Ignore the polls, Alaska will vote Trump
Alaska’s polling difficulties have not been overcome — be careful in trusting polls that paint the state purple.
New polls out of Alaska are fueling progressive hopes for a Democratic swing in the 2020 election. Harstad Strategic Research released survey results this week suggesting that Republican incumbents US Senator Dan Sullivan and President Donald Trump are leading their Democratic rivals by only one point each. This would be huge, if true. However, it probably isn’t.
Aside from sometimes writing about Alaska politics, I worked in and around the 49th State’s political scene for a number of years. As a legislative staffer in the State House in Juneau, political campaign staffer and consultant, communications director for one of the state’s largest charities, and manager of a market research and public polling firm. I’ve managed local state campaigns, worked on statewide campaigns, and polled local, state, and regional campaigns. I have a lot of experience with polling in Alaska and I can tell you: it is hard.
Polling in general is difficult in the 21st century. The industry, as a whole, is facing a near-existential crisis. The outcomes of Britain’s Brexit and America’s Presidential elections in 2016 are perhaps the most visible manifestations of…
